USBAStats
Regular season · scores
Luck index
Expected wins from points scored and allowed (Pythagorean formula, exponent 8), compared with the real record. A positive gap: the team wins more than its points suggest.
| # | Team | Games | Record | Exp. wins | Gap | Close games (≤ 5 pts) | Diff./game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timberwolves@Will 21792 | 11 | 9-2 | 5.7 | +3.3Lucky | 2-02 games | +0.9 |
| 2 | Magic@Smitty | 12 | 10-2 | 8.1 | +1.9Lucky | 1-12 games | +8.8 |
| 3 | Thunder@Boogie | 12 | 12-0 | 10.3 | +1.7Lucky | 3-03 games | +20.1 |
| 4 | Celtics@Ochowho | 11 | 4-7 | 3.4 | +0.6Within the norm | 1-01 game | -9.6 |
| 5 | Pacers@Munch | 14 | 4-10 | 4.0 | 0.0Within the norm | 2-02 games | -12.3 |
| 6 | Spurs@Tetlak | 10 | 7-3 | 7.0 | 0.0Within the norm | 1-34 games | +9.8 |
| 7 | Warriors@Samgetsbuckets | 10 | 4-6 | 4.0 | 0.0Within the norm | 1-12 games | -5.2 |
| 8 | Suns@Jsmith0505 | 10 | 4-6 | 4.7 | -0.7Within the norm | 1-23 games | -1.7 |
| 9 | Bucks@Mikeyaris7 | 13 | 7-6 | 8.9 | -1.9Cursed | 1-12 games | +9.3 |
| 10 | Hawks@Rated | 14 | 8-6 | 9.9 | -1.9Cursed | 0-33 games | +11.4 |
| — | Nets@WBMeech | 6 | 5-1 | 3.8 | +1.2Sample too small | 1-01 game | +7.2 |
| — | Hornets@B3arz555 | 6 | 1-5 | 1.6 | -0.6Sample too small | — | -13.3 |
| — | Bulls@Swimfunk | 7 | 2-5 | 3.1 | -1.1Sample too small | 0-11 game | -2.9 |
| — | Cavaliers@AProsser | 5 | 4-1 | 3.3 | +0.7Sample too small | — | +8.0 |
| — | Mavericks@Jeff Legend | 7 | 2-5 | 1.2 | +0.8Sample too small | 1-12 games | -17.0 |
| — | Nuggets@Asagikoii | 7 | 7-0 | 6.7 | +0.3Sample too small | — | +45.3 |
| — | Pistons@Jojodancer1 | 6 | 2-4 | 1.1 | +0.9Sample too small | — | -17.7 |
| — | Rockets@rreediii@yahoo.com | 5 | 5-0 | 3.9 | +1.1Sample too small | — | +15.4 |
| — | ClippersNo GM | 4 | 1-3 | 1.3 | -0.3Sample too small | 0-11 game | -9.5 |
| — | Lakers@Mictheronin | 7 | 2-5 | 2.5 | -0.5Sample too small | 1-12 games | -8.0 |
| — | Grizzlies@ampbshow30 | 6 | 4-2 | 2.8 | +1.2Sample too small | 2-02 games | -1.7 |
| — | Heat@rockyrsb3 | 7 | 0-7 | 1.6 | -1.6Sample too small | 0-11 game | -14.9 |
| — | Pelicans@Thechicagori11a | 6 | 0-6 | 0.2 | -0.2Sample too small | — | -33.0 |
| — | Knicks@Mikeheat23 | 6 | 2-4 | 1.9 | +0.1Sample too small | — | -10.2 |
| — | 76ers@Jstowe23 | 3 | 3-0 | 2.4 | +0.6Sample too small | 1-01 game | +19.0 |
| — | Trail Blazers@CTROB | 5 | 1-4 | 2.2 | -1.2Sample too small | 0-11 game | -3.2 |
| — | Kings@vperczv | 4 | 1-3 | 1.6 | -0.6Sample too small | 1-01 game | -5.8 |
| — | Raptors@imaan | 6 | 3-3 | 3.2 | -0.2Sample too small | 0-11 game | +1.3 |
| — | Jazz@Oliipurp | 5 | 3-2 | 2.9 | +0.1Sample too small | — | +4.8 |
| — | Wizards@Illvibe___ | 9 | 0-9 | 2.2 | -2.2Sample too small | 0-22 games | -13.7 |
Method
- Formula
- Expected win share = PF8 / (PF8 + PA8), points summed over the games whose score counts; expected wins = that share of the games played. Gap = wins − expected wins.
- Exponent
- Fixed at 8 for every league, fitted once on our leagues' scores (2K margins are much wider than in the NBA, where it is about 14) and refitted after a full season: a fit on a few dozen games would move every night.
- Simulated games
- A simulated game counts in the record and in the games played, not in the points.
- Labels
- Lucky from a gap of +1.5 wins, Cursed from −1.5; within the norm in between.
- Ranking
- Ranked and labelled from 10 games with a counted score. Smaller samples are listed last, in grey.
- Close games
- Decided by 5 points or fewer, simulated games left out (the team page's split).