Stats

· S1 · 350 games played · 30 teams with results

Regular season · scores

Luck index

Expected wins from points scored and allowed (Pythagorean formula, exponent 8), compared with the real record. A positive gap: the team wins more than its points suggest.

Luck index · Regular season
#	Team	Games	Record	Exp. wins	Gap	Close games (≤ 5 pts)	Diff./game
1	Nuggets@Kawelito	18	12-6	9.7	+2.3Lucky	7-29 games	+1.2
2	Celtics@Magic_XXIII	15	7-8	5.0	+2.0Lucky	1-01 game	-5.6
3	Rockets@Noahalex64	29	28-1	26.0	+2.0Lucky	2-02 games	+19.2
4	Lakers@MiMirtinthefire	26	11-15	9.3	+1.7Lucky	4-26 games	-4.9
5	Magic@GeniuS MaJor	27	11-16	9.4	+1.6Lucky	3-14 games	-4.9
6	Mavericks@Badgraal	27	18-9	16.626 scored games	+1.4Within the norm	4-04 games	+3.8
7	Raptors@Mentalys120	19	14-5	12.9	+1.1Within the norm	1-12 games	+6.4
8	Bulls@Noh225	20	1-19	0.1	+0.9Within the norm	—	-37.1
9	Grizzlies@djawadledz27	24	10-14	9.2	+0.8Within the norm	3-25 games	-4.6
10	Pelicans@NCALI	28	5-23	4.2	+0.8Within the norm	2-57 games	-15.2
11	Bucks@hotBooy_13	24	14-10	13.423 scored games	+0.6Within the norm	3-03 games	+2.3
12	Heat@Eagles-Le-Barbu	21	2-19	1.5	+0.5Within the norm	1-12 games	-22.1
13	Knicks@Swagarose	17	1-16	0.716 scored games	+0.3Within the norm	0-22 games	-24.6
14	Hawks@Waizers	18	10-8	9.8	+0.2Within the norm	2-24 games	+1.6
15	Warriors@roni__37	23	12-11	12.0	0.0Within the norm	3-47 games	+0.8
16	76ers@riico_jr	27	23-4	23.0	0.0Within the norm	2-02 games	+16.1
17	Wizards@Unkfut	27	25-2	25.2	-0.2Within the norm	1-01 game	+23.0
18	Cavaliers@Etzeir	24	1-23	1.2	-0.2Within the norm	0-22 games	-22.7
19	Nets@Arno	28	12-16	12.3	-0.3Within the norm	4-26 games	-2.1
20	Pacers@NiiinoBall	27	19-8	19.3	-0.3Within the norm	1-34 games	+8.9
21	Pistons@Bakel_2312	29	26-3	26.4	-0.4Within the norm	2-13 games	+20.0
22	Trail Blazers@xKarkasss_	21	14-7	14.6	-0.6Within the norm	3-14 games	+8.2
23	Thunder@Dydouw99	22	18-4	19.1	-1.1Within the norm	2-24 games	+16.7
24	Spurs@Bronnyjames_	21	8-13	9.2	-1.2Within the norm	3-36 games	-2.2
25	Hornets@rabsi	28	7-21	8.7	-1.7Cursed	0-33 games	-6.8
26	Kings@IziR1	25	6-19	7.7	-1.7Cursed	1-45 games	-7.4
27	Timberwolves@clement02	17	9-8	10.7	-1.7Cursed	1-12 games	+4.4
28	Suns@Mdln_zoumo	28	7-21	9.727 scored games	-2.7Cursed	3-69 games	-5.6
29	Jazz@Breezy	22	8-14	11.3	-3.3Cursed	0-55 games	+0.5
30	Clippers@Zvnkoo	18	11-7	14.8	-3.8Cursed	1-56 games	+14.2

Method

Formula: Expected win share = PF⁸ / (PF⁸ + PA⁸), points summed over the games whose score counts; expected wins = that share of the games played. Gap = wins − expected wins.
Exponent: Fixed at 8 for every league, fitted once on our leagues' scores (2K margins are much wider than in the NBA, where it is about 14) and refitted after a full season: a fit on a few dozen games would move every night.
Simulated games: A simulated game counts in the record and in the games played, not in the points.
Labels: Lucky from a gap of +1.5 wins, Cursed from −1.5; within the norm in between.
Ranking: Ranked and labelled from 10 games with a counted score. Smaller samples are listed last, in grey.
Close games: Decided by 5 points or fewer, simulated games left out (the team page's split).