USBAPlayoff projections
Chances from 4,608 simulated seasons over the games left on the schedule. Top 16: qualified for the playoffs. Updated after every validated result.
Season end date not set: every remaining game is assumed to be played.
Estimates use complete, non-simulated, undisputed regular-season results: at least 15% of the league schedule and seven per displayed team.
League
30 teams| # | Team | W–L | To play | Proj. W | Top 16 | Eliminated | Breakdown | 1st place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nuggets@Asagikoii | 7–0 | 22 | 28.8 | >99% | <1% | 99% | |
| 2 | Thunder@Boogie | 12–0 | 17 | 25.1 | >99% | <1% | 1% | |
| 3 | Rockets@rreediii@yahoo.com | 5–0 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 4 | 76ers@Jstowe23 | 3–0 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 5 | Magic@Smitty | 10–2 | 17 | 19.4 | >99% | <1% | <1% | |
| 6 | Nets@WBMeech | 5–1 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 7 | Timberwolves@Will 21792 | 9–2 | 18 | 19.9 | >99% | <1% | <1% | |
| 8 | Cavaliers@AProsser | 4–1 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 9 | Spurs@Tetlak | 7–3 | 19 | 19.9 | >99% | <1% | <1% | |
| 10 | Grizzlies@ampbshow30 | 4–2 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 11 | Jazz@Oliipurp | 3–2 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 12 | Hawks@Rated | 8–6 | 15 | 21.1 | >99% | <1% | <1% | |
| 13 | Bucks@Mikeyaris7 | 7–6 | 16 | 17.6 | 99% | 1% | <1% | |
| 14 | Raptors@imaan | 3–3 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 15 | Warriors@Samgetsbuckets | 4–6 | 19 | 13.9 | 59% | 41% | <1% | |
| 16 | Suns@Jsmith0505 | 4–6 | 19 | 12.7 | 32% | 68% | <1% | |
| Playoff Line | ||||||||
| 17 | Celtics@Ochowho | 4–7 | 18 | 11.0 | 9% | 91% | <1% | |
| 18 | Knicks@Mikeheat23 | 2–4 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 19 | Pistons@Jojodancer1 | 2–4 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 20 | Pacers@Munch | 4–10 | 15 | 9.9 | 1% | 99% | <1% | |
| 21 | Bulls@Swimfunk | 2–5 | 22 | 11.5 | 16% | 84% | <1% | |
| 22 | Lakers@Mictheronin | 2–5 | 22 | 9.9 | 4% | 96% | <1% | |
| 23 | Mavericks@Jeff Legend | 2–5 | 22 | 9.6 | 3% | 97% | <1% | |
| 24 | Kings@vperczv | 1–3 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 25 | ClippersCPU | 1–3 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 26 | Trail Blazers@CTROB | 1–4 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 27 | Hornets@B3arz555 | 1–5 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
| 28 | Heat@rockyrsb3 | 0–7 | 22 | 6.6 | <1% | >99% | <1% | |
| 29 | Wizards@Illvibe___ | 0–9 | 20 | 5.4 | <1% | >99% | <1% | |
| 30 | Pelicans@Thechicagori11a | 0–6 | Estimate unavailable: fewer than seven complete regular-season results. | |||||
Method
Method: each game is won with a probability drawn from the Houss Power Ranking (raw score margins), with a game-to-game spread of 13 points fitted on this league's results. With a season end date, a game left between two teams is played with the lower of the two teams' chances to get to it at their pace (games per day since the first game, the last 7 days weighing in when they differ clearly); without one, every game left is played. Ties are broken using this league's standings rules. « >99 % » and « <1 % »: a simulation never shows 100 % or 0 %.
Games not played by the end date do not count. The league admins can adjust the seeds when the playoffs start.